A novel nomogram for predicting microvascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Introduction and objectives: In hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the prognosis of patients with microvascular invasion (MVI) is poor. Therefore, in this study, we established and evaluated the performance of a novel nomogram to predict MVI in patients with HCC.

Materials and methods: We retrospectively obtained clinical data of 497 patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy at Liaoning Cancer Hospital from November 1, 2018, to November 4, 2021. The patients (n = 497) were randomized in a 7:3 ratio into the training cohort (TC, n = 349) and the validation cohort (VC, n = 148). We performed Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and univariate as well as multivariate logistic regression analyses (ULRA, MRLA) on patients in the TC to identify factors independently predicting MVI.

Results: Preoperative FIB-4, AFU, AFP levels, liver cirrhosis, and non-smooth tumor margin were independent risk factors for preoperative MVI prediction. The C-index of the TC, VC, and the entire cohort was 0.846, 0.786, and 0.829, respectively. The calibration curves demonstrated the outstanding agreement between predicted MVI incidences by our model and the actual MVI risk. Decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the significance of our predictive model in clinical settings. The Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curve showed that the recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) of patients in the high-MVI risk group were poor compared to those in the low-MVI risk group.

Conclusions: We constructed and evaluated the performance of the novel nomogram for predicting MVI risk. Our predictive model could adequately predict MVI risk and aid clinicians in selecting appropriate therapeutic strategies for patients.

Keywords: Hepatocellular carcinoma; Microvascular invasion; Nomogram; Prediction model; Preoperative clinical data.