Assessment of the sustainability of groundwater utilization and crop production under optimized irrigation strategies in the North China Plain under future climate change

Lili Tan; Xueliang Zhang; Junyu Qi; Danfeng Sun; Gary W Marek; Puyu Feng; Baogui Li; De Li Liu; Baoguo Li; Raghavan Srinivasan; Yong Chen

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165619

Assessment of the sustainability of groundwater utilization and crop production under optimized irrigation strategies in the North China Plain under future climate change

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Nov 15:899:165619. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165619. Epub 2023 Jul 20.

Authors

Lili Tan¹, Xueliang Zhang², Junyu Qi³, Danfeng Sun¹, Gary W Marek⁴, Puyu Feng⁵, Baogui Li¹, De Li Liu⁶, Baoguo Li⁵, Raghavan Srinivasan⁷, Yong Chen⁸

Affiliations

¹ College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Research Center of Land Use and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China.
² College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Research Center of Land Use and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Hebei Cangzhou Groundwater and Land Subsidence National Observation and Research Station, Cangzhou 061000, China.
³ Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA.
⁴ USDA-ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory, Bushland, TX 79012, USA.
⁵ College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Key Laboratory of Arable Land Conservation in North China, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100193, China.
⁶ NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia.
⁷ Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
⁸ College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Research Center of Land Use and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Key Laboratory of Arable Land Conservation in North China, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100193, China. Electronic address: yongchen@cau.edu.cn.

PMID: 37478948
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165619

Abstract

Over-exploitation of groundwater due to intensive irrigation and anticipated climate change pose severe threats to the water and food security worldwide, particularly in the North China Plain (NCP). Limited irrigation has been recognized as an effective way to improve crop water productivity and slow the rapid decline of groundwater levels. Whether optimized limited irrigation strategies could achieve a balance between groundwater pumping and grain production in the NCP under future climate change deserves further study. In this study, an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate climate change impacts on shallow groundwater levels and crop production under limited irrigation strategies to suggest optimal irrigation management practices under future climate conditions in the NCP. The simulations of eleven limited irrigation strategies for winter wheat with targeted irrigations at different growth stages and with irrigated or rainfed summer maize were compared with future business-as-usual management. Climate change impacts showed that mean wheat (maize) yield under adequate irrigation was expected to increase by 13.2% (4.9%) during the middle time period (2041-2070) and by 11.2% (4.6%) during the late time period (2071-2100) under three SSPs compared to the historical period (1971-2000). Mean decline rate of shallow groundwater level slowed by approximately 1 m a^-1 during the entire future period (2041-2100) under three SSPs with a greater reduction for SSP5-8.5. The average contribution rate of future climate toward the balance of shallow groundwater pumping and replenishment was 62.9%. Based on the simulated crop yields and decline rate of shallow groundwater level under the future climate, the most appropriate limited irrigation was achieved by applying irrigation during the jointing stage of wheat with rainfed maize, which could achieve the groundwater recovery and sustainable food production.

Keywords: Climate change adaptation; Crop yield; Limited irrigation; NCP; SWAT-MAD-GW-CO(2); Shallow groundwater level.

MeSH terms

Agricultural Irrigation
China
Climate Change*
Crop Production
Groundwater*
Triticum
Water

Substances

Water