Rebound effects could offset more than half of avoided food loss and waste

Margaret Hegwood; Matthew G Burgess; Erin M Costigliolo; Pete Smith; Bojana Bajželj; Harry Saunders; Steven J Davis

doi:10.1038/s43016-023-00792-z

Rebound effects could offset more than half of avoided food loss and waste

Nat Food. 2023 Jul;4(7):585-595. doi: 10.1038/s43016-023-00792-z. Epub 2023 Jul 20.

Authors

Margaret Hegwood^{1

2}, Matthew G Burgess^{3

4

5}, Erin M Costigliolo^{6

7}, Pete Smith⁸, Bojana Bajželj⁹, Harry Saunders¹⁰, Steven J Davis^{11

12}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. margaret.hegwood@colorado.edu.
² Center for Social and Environmental Futures, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. margaret.hegwood@colorado.edu.
³ Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. matthew.g.burgess@colorado.edu.
⁴ Center for Social and Environmental Futures, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. matthew.g.burgess@colorado.edu.
⁵ Department of Economics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. matthew.g.burgess@colorado.edu.
⁶ Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
⁷ Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
⁸ Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
⁹ Department of Energy and Technology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.
¹⁰ Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, USA.
¹¹ Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA. sjdavis@uci.edu.
¹² Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA. sjdavis@uci.edu.

PMID: 37474803
DOI: 10.1038/s43016-023-00792-z

Abstract

Reducing food loss and waste (FLW) could lessen the environmental impacts of food systems and improve food security. However, rebound effects-whereby efficiency improvements cause price decreases and consumption increases-may offset some avoided FLW. Here we model rebounds in food consumption under a scenario of costless FLW reduction. We project that consumption rebound could offset 53-71% of avoided FLW. Such rebounds would imply similar percentage reductions in environmental benefits (carbon emissions, land use, water use) and improvements in food security benefits (increased calorie availability), highlighting a tension between these two objectives. Evidence from energy systems suggests that indirect effects not included in our analysis could further increase rebounds. However, costs of reducing FLW would reduce rebounds. Rebound effects are therefore important to consider in efforts aimed at reducing FLW.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

Environment*
Food Supply
Food*