Individual health-disease phase diagrams for disease prevention based on machine learning

Abstract

Early disease detection and prevention methods based on effective interventions are gaining attention worldwide. Progress in precision medicine has revealed that substantial heterogeneity exists in health data at the individual level and that complex health factors are involved in chronic disease development. Machine-learning techniques have enabled precise personal-level disease prediction by capturing individual differences in multivariate data. However, it is challenging to identify what aspects should be improved for disease prevention based on future disease-onset prediction because of the complex relationships among multiple biomarkers. Here, we present a health-disease phase diagram (HDPD) that represents an individual's health state by visualizing the future-onset boundary values of multiple biomarkers that fluctuate early in the disease progression process. In HDPDs, future-onset predictions are represented by perturbing multiple biomarker values while accounting for dependencies among variables. We constructed HDPDs for 11 diseases using longitudinal health checkup cohort data of 3,238 individuals, comprising 3,215 measurement items and genetic data. The improvement of biomarker values to the non-onset region in HDPD remarkably prevented future disease onset in 7 out of 11 diseases. HDPDs can represent individual physiological states in the onset process and be used as intervention goals for disease prevention.

Keywords: Biomarkers; Disease prevention; Explainable artificial intelligence; Machine learning; Precision medicine.