eGFR slope as a surrogate endpoint for clinical study in early stage of chronic kidney disease: from The Japan Chronic Kidney Disease Database

Abstract

Background: In clinical trials targeting early chronic kidney disease (CKD), eGFR slope has been proposed as a surrogate endpoint for predicting end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). However, it is unclear whether the eGFR slope serves as a surrogate endpoint for predicting long-term prognosis in Japanese early CKD populations.

Methods: The data source was the J-CKD-Database, which contains real-world data on patients with CKD in Japan. eGFR slope was calculated from the eGFR of each period, 1-year (1-year slope), 2-year (2-year slope), and 3-year (3-year slope), for participants with a baseline eGFR ≥ 30 ml/min/1.73 m². The outcome was ESKD (defined as dialysis initiation or incidence of CKD stage G5). The relationship between eGFR slope and the sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR) of ESKD with death as a competing event was investigated using a Fine-Gray proportional hazard regression model.

Results: The number of participants and mean observation periods were 7768/877 ± 491 days for 1-year slope, 6778/706 ± 346 days for 2-year slope, and 5219/495 ± 215 days for 3-year slope. As the eGFR slope decreased, a tendency toward a lower risk of ESKD was observed. Compared with the 1-year slope, there was a smaller variation in the slope values for the 2-year or 3-year slope and a greater decrease in the SHR; therefore, a calculation period of 2 or 3 years for the eGFR slope was considered appropriate.

Conclusion: Even in Japanese patients with early stage CKD, a slower eGFR slope calculated from eGFR values over 2-3 years was associated with a decreased risk of ESKD.

Keywords: Chronic kidney disease; End stage kidney disease; Surrogate endpoint; eGFR slope.