An epidemic dynamics model with limited isolation capacity

Abstract

We consider a modified SIR model with a four-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations to consider the influence of a limited isolation capacity on the final epidemic size defined as the total number of individuals who experienced the disease at the end of an epidemic season. We derive the necessary and sufficient condition that the isolation reaches the capacity in a finite time on the way of the epidemic process, and show that the final epidemic size is monotonically decreasing in terms of the isolation capacity. We find further that the final epidemic size could have a discontinuous change at the critical value of isolation capacity below which the isolation reaches the capacity in a finite time. Our results imply that the breakdown of isolation with a limited capacity would cause a drastic increase of the epidemic size. Insufficient capacity of the isolation could lead to an unexpectedly severe epidemic situation, while such a severity would be avoidable with the sufficient isolation capacity.

Keywords: Epidemic dynamics; Final epidemic size; Isolation; Mathematical model; Ordinary differential equations.