Coupling strength of human-natural systems mediates the response of ecosystem services to land use change

Abstract

Addressing the dynamics of human-natural systems (HNS) driven by land use change (LC) is a key challenge for the sustainable development of ecosystem services (ES). However, how changes to the HNS coupling relationships affect ES is rarely reported. We used network analysis methods to construct an HNS correlation network in the Loess Plateau based on the correlation between the main components of HNS, such as ES, human factors, landscape pattern, vegetation cover, climate change and geomorphic characteristics, and quantitatively described the HNS coupling relationships through key network attributes. We analyzed the variation in HNS network attributes and their relationships with ES along an LC intensity gradient. The results show that carbon storage and soil conservation in the Loess Plateau increased by 0.56% and 0.26%, respectively, during the study period, while the habitat quality and water yield decreased by 0.11% and 0.18%, respectively. An increase in LC intensity reduces connectivity and density in the HNS network, which results in looser connections among HNS components. Importantly, we found that HNS network attributes explained 85% of ES variation across different LC intensity gradients and that connectivity and density had the strongest explanatory power. This means that LC mainly affects ES dynamics by changing the coupling strength of HNS. Our research offers a new perspective for linking LC-HNS-ES, which will help guide practitioners toward establishing and maintaining the sustainability of human well-being amidst changing HNS.

Keywords: Ecosystem services; Human-natural systems; Land use change intensity; Loess plateau; Network analysis.