The Effect of State and Local Flavored Cigar Sales Restrictions, on Retail Sales of Large Cigars, Cigarillos, and Little Cigars in Massachusetts, California, Illinois, and New York

Abstract

Introduction: In 2009, the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act prohibited flavored cigarettes but allowed for flavored cigars. Since, there has been a 34% increase in youth cigar use and widened racial disparities. State and local jurisdictions have increasingly enacted flavored tobacco product sales restrictions. As more jurisdictions consider implementing flavor restrictions, it is important to understand their effect on tobacco markets that have high flavor proliferation, including the cigar market.

Aims and methods: This study uses data from Truth Initiative's flavor policy database and NielsenIQ retailer scanners for California, Illinois, Massachusetts, and New York. We use a three-way fixed-effect model to assess the impact of the percentage of the population covered by a flavored cigar sales restriction on per capita unit sales of cigars.

Results: We find that population coverage by cigar sales restrictions was significantly associated with decreases in per capita cigar sales. More specifically, a 25% increase in the percentage of the population covered by a flavored cigar sales restriction was associated with a decrease in per capita all cigar sales of 15%-19%, 4%-10% for large cigars, 17%-21% for cigarillos, and 2%-41% for little cigars.

Conclusion: Flavored cigar sales restrictions are an effective policy to reduce per capita cigar sales. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA)'s proposed product standards would increase population covered by a flavored cigar sales restriction to 100%, leading to potential significant reductions in cigar sales, especially little cigar, and cigarillo sales. This may also substantially reduce youth cigar use and racial disparities in cigar use.

Implications: In April 2022, the U.S. FDA published a proposed rule to prohibit characterizing flavors in all cigars and menthol cigarettes. Besides this proposed rule, there has been little federal action to date to reduce sales of flavored cigars. However, as of March 31, 2022, Massachusetts and 333 localities across 10 states have enacted policies that restrict the sale of flavored cigars and other tobacco products. We find that population coverage by cigar sales restrictions is significantly associated with decreases in per capita cigar sales.