Accurate equipment operation trend prediction plays an important role in ensuring the safe operation of equipment and reducing maintenance costs. Therefore, monitoring the equipment vibration and predicting the time series of the vibration trend is one of the effective means to prevent equipment failures. In order to reduce the error of equipment operation trend prediction, this paper proposes a method for equipment operation trend prediction based on a combination of signal decomposition and an Informer prediction model. Aiming at the problem of high noise in vibration signals, which makes it difficult to obtain intrinsic characteristics when directly using raw data for prediction, the original signal is decomposed once using the variational mode decomposition (VMD) algorithm optimized by the improved sparrow search algorithm (ISSA) to obtain the intrinsic mode function (IMF) for different frequencies and calculate the fuzzy entropy. The improved adaptive white noise complete set empirical mode decomposition (ICEEMDAN) is used to decompose the components with the largest fuzzy entropy to obtain a series of intrinsic mode components, fully combining the advantages of the Informer model in processing long time series, and predict equipment operation trend data. Input all subsequences into the Informer model and reconstruct the results to obtain the predicted results. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of equipment operation trend prediction compared to other models.
Keywords: ICEEMDAN; equipment operation trend prediction; informer; quadratic decomposition; variational mode decomposition.