Background: Pediatric heart transplant candidates on the waitlist have the highest mortality rate among all solid organ transplants. A risk score incorporating a candidate's individual risk factors may better predict mortality on the waitlist and optimize organ allocation to the sickest of those awaiting transplant.
Methods: Using the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database, we evaluated a total of 5542 patients aged 0-18 years old on the waitlist for a single, first time, heart transplant from January 2010 to June 2019. We performed a univariate analysis on two-thirds (N = 3705) of these patients to derive the factors most associated with waitlist mortality or delisting secondary to deterioration within 1 year. Those with a p <0.2 underwent a multivariate analysis and the resulting factors were used to build a prediction model using the Fine-Grey model analysis. This predictive scoring model was then validated on the remaining one-third of the patients (N = 1852).
Results: The Pediatric Risk to OHT (PRO) scoring model utilizes the following unique patient variables: blood type, diagnosis of congenital heart disease, weight, presence of ventilator support, presence of inotropic support, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ecmo) status, creatinine level, and region. A higher score indicates an increased risk of mortality. The PRO score had a predictive strength of 0.762 as measured by area under the ROC curve at 1 year.
Conclusion: The PRO score is an improved predictive model with the potential to better assess mortality for patients awaiting heart transplant.
Keywords: pediatric heart transplant; pediatric transplantation; risk factors; solid organ transplantation.
© 2023 The Authors. Pediatric Transplantation published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.