Pathway analysis of food security by employing climate change, water, and agriculture nexus in Pakistan: partial least square structural equation modeling

Abstract

Increasing population and augmented demand for food have put burden on water resources, crops, and livestock for future sustainability. Pakistan is facing difficulties of water shortage, low crops and livestock productivity, meagre livelihood, and intensive food insecurity. Hence, this study was conducted in Pakistan to explore the nexus of climate change, irrigation water, agriculture, rural livelihoods, and food security. The study is based on primary data of 1080 farmers gathered from 12 districts of the rice-wheat and cotton-wheat cropping systems. A partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to compute the nexus. Findings of path analysis indicated that climate change had a significant negative impact on irrigation water, crops, livestock, rural livelihood, and food security in both cropping systems. There was positive relationship between surface water and crops. In addition, groundwater and crops were also positively and significantly correlated. The impact of crop was positive and significant on rural livelihood and food security. Furthermore, rural livelihood and food security were positively and significantly influenced by livestock. Moreover, there was positive relationship between rural livelihood and food security. The cotton-wheat cropping system was more affected by climatic and natural hazards than rice-wheat cropping system. Interconnectivity among nexus components and their contribution to rural livelihood and food security indicate that government, policymakers, and other concerned stakeholders should effectively improve food security policies under climatic and natural hazards. Moreover, it helps in examining adverse impacts of hazards induced by climate change on nexus components, leading to the designing and adoption of sustainable climate change policies. The study's originality lies in its ability to provide a inclusive and integrated pathway of the interconnections and interdependencies among these variables, identifying key drivers of food insecurity in Pakistan. Moreover, outcome of the study has policy implications for developing sustainable policies and strategies to improve sustainable food security in the country.

Keywords: Agriculture; Climate change; Food security; Irrigation water; PLS-SEM; Pathway analysis.