Covid-19 Policy Convergence in Response to Knightian Uncertainty

Anthony M Sayers; Christa Scholtz; Dave Armstrong; Christopher Kam; Christopher Alcantara

doi:10.1177/14789299221109081

Covid-19 Policy Convergence in Response to Knightian Uncertainty

Polit Stud Rev. 2023 Aug;21(3):625-635. doi: 10.1177/14789299221109081. Epub 2022 Jul 21.

Authors

Anthony M Sayers¹, Christa Scholtz², Dave Armstrong³, Christopher Kam⁴, Christopher Alcantara³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Political Science, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
² Department of Political Science, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada.
³ Department of Political Science, Western University, London, ON, Canada.
⁴ Department of Political Science, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.

Abstract

Domestic policy responses to COVID-19 were remarkably consistent during the early days of the pandemic. What explains this policy convergence? Our formal model suggests that the novel character of COVID-19 produced a period of maximum policy uncertainty, incentivizing political actors to converge on a common set of policies to minimize their exposure to electoral punishment. This convergence is likely to break down as policy feedback produces opinion divergence among experts and the public and as politicians recalculate the costs and benefits of various policy responses and under some conditions facing incentives to adopt extreme policies.

Keywords: COVID-19; Knightian uncertainty; elite decision-making; policy convergence.