Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin

Cibele Amaral; Benjamin Poulter; David Lagomasino; Temilola Fatoyinbo; Paul Taillie; Gil Lizcano; Steven Canty; Jorge Alfredo Herrera Silveira; Claudia Teutli-Hernández; Miguel Cifuentes-Jara; Sean Patrick Charles; Claudia Shantal Moreno; Juan David González-Trujillo; Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413

Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Nov 10:898:165413. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413. Epub 2023 Jul 8.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80303, United States; Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Department of Forest Engineering, Viçosa, MG 36570-900, Brazil; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States. Electronic address: cibele.amaral@colorado.edu.
² NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States.
³ East Carolina University, Department of Coastal Studies, Greenville, NC 27858-4353, United States.
⁴ University of Florida, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States.
⁵ Climate Scale, Parc Barcelona Activa, 08402 Barcelona, Spain.
⁶ Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, 647 Contees Wharf Road, Edgewater, MD 21037, United States; Working Land and Seascapes, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013, United States.
⁷ Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados, Departamento de Recursos del Mar, 97310 Mérida, Mexico.
⁸ Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores Unidad Mérida, 97357 Mérida, México.
⁹ Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, United States; Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza, 30501 Turrialba, Costa Rica.
¹⁰ Chair of Land Management, Technical University of Munich, Arcisstraße 21, D-80333 Munich, Germany.
¹¹ Departamento de Biogeografía y Cambio Global, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, JoseGutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain; Rui Nabeiro Biodiversity Chair, MED Institute, Universidade de Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, 7000 Évora, Portugal.
¹² Wageningen University & Research, Laboratory of Geo-Information Science and Remote Sensing, 6708PB Wageningen, the Netherlands; Technical University of Munich, School of Life Sciences, Institute of Forest Management, 85354 Fresing, Germany.

PMID: 37429480
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413

Abstract

The North Atlantic Basin (NAB) has seen an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones since the 1980s, with record-breaking seasons in 2017 and 2020. However, little is known about how coastal ecosystems, particularly mangroves in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, respond to these new "climate normals" at regional and subregional scales. Wind speed, rainfall, pre-cyclone forest height, and hydro-geomorphology are known to influence mangrove damage and recovery following cyclones in the NAB. However, previous studies have focused on local-scale responses and individual cyclonic events. Here, we analyze 25 years (1996-2020) of mangrove vulnerability (damage after a cyclone) and 24 years (1996-2019) of short-term resilience (recovery after damage) for the NAB and subregions, using multi-annual, remote sensing-derived databases. We used machine learning to characterize the influence of 22 potential variables on mangrove responses, including human development and long-term climate trends. Our results document variability in the rates and drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience, highlighting hotspots of cyclone impacts, mangrove damage, and loss of resilience. Cyclone characteristics mainly drove vulnerability at the regional level. In contrast, resilience was driven by site-specific conditions, including long-term climate trends, pre-cyclone forest structure, soil organic carbon stock, and coastal development (i.e., proximity to human infrastructure). Coastal development is associated with both vulnerability and resilience at the subregional level. Further, we highlight that loss of resilience occurs mostly in areas experiencing long-term drought across the NAB. The impacts of increasing cyclone activity on mangroves and their coastal protection service must be framed in the context of compound climate change effects and continued coastal development. Our work offers descriptive and spatial information to support the restoration and adaptive management of NAB mangroves, which need adequate health, structure, and density to protect coasts and serve as Nature-based Solutions against climate change and extreme weather events.

Keywords: Coastal development; Coastal ecosystem; Drought; Machine learning; Nature-based solutions; Remote sensing.