The future trajectory of carbon emissions in the process of carbon neutrality in South Korea

Abstract

The excessive use of fossil energy in industrialization has caused the frequent occurrence of global warming and environmental pollution issues, which seriously threaten the sustainable social and economic development of South Korea and other countries. In response to the international community's call to effectively address climate change, South Korea has announced achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. In this context, this paper takes the carbon emission of South Korea from 2016 to 2021 as a sample and focuses on using the GM(1,1) model to predict the carbon emission change trajectory of South Korea in the process of achieving carbon neutrality. The results show: first, in the process of carbon neutrality, South Korea's carbon emissions show a downward trend, with an average annual rate of 2.34%. Second, by 2030, carbon emissions will decline to 502.34 Mt CO₂e, down about 26.79% from the 2018 peak. By 2050, South Korea's carbon emissions will decline to 312.65 Mt CO₂e, down about 54.44% from the 2018 peak. Third, it is difficult for South Korea to achieve its carbon neutrality target by 2050 based solely on its forest carbon sink storage capacity. Therefore, this study is expected to provide a reference for improving the carbon neutrality promotion strategy in South Korea and strengthening the construction of relevant systems of carbon neutrality, and so can provide some reference for other countries, including China, to improve policy design to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the global economy.

Keywords: Carbon emission; Carbon neutrality; GM(1, 1); Prediction.