Development of a model for the prediction of biological age

Abstract

Background and objective: Rates of aging vary markedly among individuals, and biological age serves as a more reliable predictor of current health status than does chronological age. As such, the ability to predict biological age can support appropriate and timely active interventions aimed at improving coping with the aging process. However, the aging process is highly complex and multifactorial. Therefore, it is more scientific to construct a prediction model for biological age from multiple dimensions systematically.

Methods: Physiological and biochemical parameters were evaluated to gage individual health status. Then, age-related indices were screened for inclusion in a model capable of predicting biological age. For subsequent modeling analyses, samples were divided into training and validation sets for subsequent deep learning model-based analyses (e.g. linear regression, lasso model, ridge regression, bayesian ridge regression, elasticity network, k-nearest neighbor, linear support vector machine, support vector machine, and decision tree models, and so on), with the model exhibiting the best ability to predict biological age thereby being identified.

Results: First, we defined the individual biological age according to the individual health status. Then, after 22 candidate indices (DNA methylation, leukocyte telomere length, and specific physiological and biochemical indicators) were screened for inclusion in a model capable of predicting biological age, 14 age-related indices and gender were used to construct a model via the Bagged Trees method, which was found to be the most reliable qualitative prediction model for biological age (accuracy=75.6%, AUC=0.84) by comparing 30 different classification algorithm models. The most reliable quantitative predictive model for biological age was found to be the model developed using the Rational Quadratic method (R²=0.85, RMSE=8.731 years) by comparing 24 regression algorithm models.

Conclusions: Both qualitative model and quantitative model of biological age were successfully constructed from a multi-dimensional and systematic perspective. The predictive performance of our models was similar in both smaller and larger datasets, making it well-suited to predicting a given individual's biological age.

Keywords: Biological age; DNA methylation; Deep learning; Leukocyte telomere length; Physiological and biochemical parameters; Prediction model.