Great transition and new pattern: Agriculture and rural area green development and its coordinated relationship with economic growth in China

Abstract

Agricultural and Rural Green Development (ARGD) and economic growth are major challenges prevalent in China, but also in other developing countries. A notable gap in current literature lies in the limited holistic approach to agriculture and rural areas, with scant attention being paid to the spatiotemporal evolution of ARGD and its coordination relationship with economic growth. This paper first offers a theoretical analysis of the interactive relationship between ARGD and economic growth and subsequently examines the policy implementation process in China in this regard. It observes 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2020 to uncover the spatiotemporal evolution of Agricultural and Rural Green Development Efficiency (ARGDE). Using the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model and the local spatial autocorrelation model, this paper analyses the coordination relationship and spatial correlation between ARGDE and economic growth. The results show that ARGDE in China exhibited a phased growth trend and was greatly affected by policies during 1997-2020. The interregional ARGD produced a hierarchical effect. However, provinces with a higher ARGDE did not necessarily exhibit faster growth, leading to a differential pattern of optimization that involved continuous optimization, phased optimization, and continuous deterioration. Over a long period, ARGDE exhibited a trend of significant upward leaps or jumps. Finally, the CCD between ARGDE and economic growth improved, with a clear trend of high-high agglomeration characteristics that shifted from the eastern and northeastern provinces to the central and western ones. This suggests that promoting "quality agriculture" and "green agriculture" can have practical significance in accelerating the development of ARGD. In the future, it is vital to promote ARGD's transformation while mitigating the risk of degrading the coordinated relationship between ARGD and economic growth.

Keywords: Agriculture and rural areas; Coupling coordination relationship; Dynamic evolution; Economic growth; Green development efficiency.