The incidence trends of oral cancers worldwide from 1988 to 2012 and the prediction up to 2030

Dong-Ning Lu; Wan-Chen Zhang; Yan-Ze Lin; Yi-Ning Zhang; Cheng-Ying Shao; Chuan-Ming Zheng; Ming-Hua Ge; Jia-Jie Xu

doi:10.1002/hed.27443

The incidence trends of oral cancers worldwide from 1988 to 2012 and the prediction up to 2030

Head Neck. 2023 Sep;45(9):2394-2412. doi: 10.1002/hed.27443. Epub 2023 Jul 7.

Authors

Dong-Ning Lu^{1

2}, Wan-Chen Zhang^{1

2}, Yan-Ze Lin^{1

2}, Yi-Ning Zhang^{1

2}, Cheng-Ying Shao^{1

2}, Chuan-Ming Zheng^{1

3}, Ming-Hua Ge^{1

2

3}, Jia-Jie Xu^{1

3}

Affiliations

¹ Otolaryngology & Head and Neck Center, Cancer Center, Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital, Affiliated People's Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College, Zhejiang, Hangzhou, China.
² Second Clinical Medical College, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, China.
³ Key Laboratory of Endocrine Gland Diseases of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang, Hangzhou, China.

PMID: 37417818
DOI: 10.1002/hed.27443

Abstract

Background: This paper aims to analyze the time trend of OCs incidence in 43 countries (1988-2012) and predict the incidence trend of OCs (2012-2030).

Methods: In the database for Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, the annual data on OCs incidence grouped by age and gender were obtained from 108 cancer registries in 43 countries. The age-standardized incidence rates were calculated, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the incidence in 2030.

Results: South Asia and Oceania had the highest ASR in 1988 (9.24/100 000) and 2012 (6.74/100 000). It was predicted that India, Thailand, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Austria, and Japan would be the countries with an increased incidence of OCs in 2030.

Conclusion: Regional custom is an important factor affecting the incidence of OCs. According to our predictions., it is necessary to control risk factors according to local conditions and enhance screening and education.

Keywords: head and neck cancer; incidence rate; oral cancer; prediction; worldwide.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Bayes Theorem
Humans
Incidence
Japan / epidemiology
Mouth Neoplasms* / epidemiology
Registries
Risk Factors