Bias assessment of a test-negative design study of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness used in national policymaking

Nat Commun. 2023 Jul 6;14(1):3984. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-39674-0.

Abstract

National test-negative-case-control (TNCC) studies are used to monitor COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in the UK. A questionnaire was sent to participants from the first published TNCC COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness study conducted by the UK Health Security Agency, to assess for potential biases and changes in behaviour related to vaccination. The original study included symptomatic adults aged ≥70 years testing for COVID-19 between 08/12/2020 and 21/02/2021. A questionnaire was sent to cases and controls tested from 1-21 February 2021. In this study, 8648 individuals responded to the questionnaire (36.5% response). Using information from the questionnaire to produce a combined estimate that accounted for all potential biases decreased the original vaccine effectiveness estimate after two doses of BNT162b2 from 88% (95% CI: 79-94%) to 85% (95% CI: 68-94%). Self-reported behaviour demonstrated minimal evidence of riskier behaviour after vaccination. These findings offer reassurance to policy makers and clinicians making decisions based on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness TNCC studies.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • BNT162 Vaccine
  • Bias
  • COVID-19 Testing
  • COVID-19 Vaccines*
  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / prevention & control
  • Humans
  • Vaccine Efficacy

Substances

  • COVID-19 Vaccines
  • BNT162 Vaccine