Background: The incidence of newly diagnosed meningiomas, particularly those diagnosed incidentally, is continually increasing. The indication for treatment is empirical because, despite numerous studies, the natural history of these tumours remains difficult to describe and predict.
Methods: This retrospective single-centre study included 294 consecutive patients with 333 meningiomas who underwent three or more brain imaging scans. Linear, exponential, power, and Gompertz models were constructed to derive volume-time curves, by using a mixed-effect approach. The most accurate model was used to analyse tumour growth and predictors of rapid growth.
Findings: The Gompertz model provided the best results. Hierarchical clustering at the time of diagnosis and at the end of follow-up revealed at least three distinct groups, which can be described as pseudoexponential, linear, and slowing growth with respect to their parameters. Younger patients and smaller tumours were more frequent in the pseudo-exponential clusters. We found that the more "aggressive" the cluster, the higher the proportion of patients with grade II meningiomas and who have had a cranial radiotherapy. Over a mean observation period of 56.5 months, 21% of the tumours moved to a cluster with a lower growth rate, consistent with the Gompertz's law.
Interpretation: Meningiomas exhibit multiple growth phases, as described by the Gompertz model. The management of meningiomas should be discussed according to the growth phase, comorbidities, tumour location, size, and growth rate. Further research is needed to evaluate the associations between radiomics features and the growth phases of meningiomas.
Funding: No funding.
Keywords: Gompertz model; Meningioma; Natural history; Volumetry.
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