Future prediction of water balance using the SWAT and CA-Markov model using INMCM5 climate projections: a case study of the Silwani watershed (Jharkhand), India

Mukesh Kumar; Lakhan Lal Mahato; Shakti Suryavanshi; Sudhir Kumar Singh; Arnab Kundu; Dipanwita Dutta; Deepak Lal

doi:10.1007/s11356-023-27547-4

Future prediction of water balance using the SWAT and CA-Markov model using INMCM5 climate projections: a case study of the Silwani watershed (Jharkhand), India

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jul 4. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-27547-4. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Mukesh Kumar¹, Lakhan Lal Mahato², Shakti Suryavanshi³, Sudhir Kumar Singh⁴, Arnab Kundu⁵, Dipanwita Dutta⁶, Deepak Lal¹

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Geospatial Technologies, Sam Higginbottom University of Agriculture, Technology and Sciences, Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, India.
² Rural Development Department, Government of Jharkhand, Jharkhand State Watershed Mission, Ranchi, Jharkhand, India.
³ Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, Sam Higginbottom University of Agriculture, Technology and Sciences, Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, India. suryavanshi.shakti@gmail.com.
⁴ K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, IIDS, Nehru Science Centre, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, India.
⁵ Department of Geo-Informatics, Pandit Raghunath Murmu Smriti Mahavidyalaya, Bankura University, Bankura, West Bengal, India.
⁶ Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, West Bengal, India.

PMID: 37402047
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-27547-4

Abstract

The aim of this research was to simulate the future water balance of the Silwani watershed, Jharkhand, India, under the combined effect of land use and climate change based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov Chain model. The future climate prediction was done based on daily bias-corrected datasets of the INMCM5 climate model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 (SSP585), which represent the fossil fuel development of the world. After a successful model run, water balance components like surface runoff, groundwater contribution to stream flow, and ET were simulated. The anticipated change in land use/land cover (LULC) between 2020 and 2030 reflects a slight increase (3.9 mm) in groundwater contribution to stream flow while slight decrease in surface runoff (4.8 mm). The result of this research work helps the planners to plan any similar watershed for future conservation.

Keywords: CA–Markov chain model; Percolation; Recent climate projections; SWAT model; Water balance; Water yield.