Utility of Machine Learning Algorithms in Predicting Preoperative Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients With Rectal Cancer Based on Three-Dimensional Endorectal Ultrasound and Clinical and Laboratory Data

Abstract

Background: We aimed to investigate the value of a machine learning (ML) algorithm in the preoperative prediction of lymph node metastasis in patients with rectal cancer.

Methods: Based on the histopathological results, 126 rectal cancer patients were divided into two groups: lymph node metastasis-positive and metastasis-negative groups. We collected clinical and laboratory data, three-dimensional endorectal ultrasound (3D-ERUS) findings, and parameters of the tumor for between-group comparisons. We constructed a clinical prediction model based on the ML algorithm, which demonstrated the best diagnostic performance. Finally, we analyzed the diagnostic results and processes of the ML model.

Results: Between the two groups, there were significant differences in serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, tumor length, tumor breadth, circumferential extent of the tumor, resistance index (RI), and ultrasound T-stage (P < 0.05). The extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model had the best comprehensive diagnostic performance for predicting lymph node metastasis in patients with rectal cancer. Compared with experienced radiologists, the XGBoost model showed significantly higher diagnostic value in predicting lymph node metastasis; the area under curve (AUC) value of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the XGBoost model and experienced radiologists was 0.82 and 0.60, respectively.

Conclusions: Preoperative predictive utility in lymph node metastasis was demonstrated by the XGBoost model based on the 3D-ERUS finding and related clinical information. This could be useful in guiding clinical decisions on the selection of different treatment strategies.

Keywords: endorectal ultrasound; extreme gradient boosting algorithm; lymph node metastasis; machine learning algorithm; rectal cancer.