Climate change-driven rapid alteration of ecosystems globally is further complicated by growing anthropogenic pressures, especially in the ecologically sensitive mountainous regions. However, these two major drivers of change have largely been considered separately in species distribution models, thus compromising their reliability. Here, we integrated ensemble modelling with the human pressure index for predicting distribution and mapping priority regions across a whole range of occurrences for vulnerable species, Arnebia euchroma. Our results identified 3.08% of the study area as 'highly suitable', 2.45% as 'moderately suitable', and 94.45% as 'not suitable' or 'least suitable'. Compared to current climatic conditions, future RCP scenarios of 2050 and 2070 showed a significant loss in habitat suitability and a slight shift in the distribution pattern of the target species. By excluding the high-pressure areas of the human footprint from the predicted suitable habitats, we were able to identify the unique areas (70% of the predicted suitable area) that need special attention for conservation and restoration. Such models, if well implemented, may play a pivotal role in achieving the effective targets under the aegis of the current UN decade on ecological restoration (2021-2030) in accordance with SDG 15.4.
Keywords: Climate change; Human pressures; Montane ecosystems; Prediction modelling; Prioritisation; Restoration.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.