Asymmetric impact of technological innovation, foreign direct investment and agricultural production on environmental degradation: evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

The present study analyzes the asymmetric effects of technical innovation, foreign direct investment, and agriculture productivity on Pakistan's environmental degradation from 1990 to 2020. A non-linear autoregressive model (NARDL) has been used for the analysis. The asymmetric effects have been computed for both the long and short run. The empirical results show that there is equilibrium long-run relationship among the variables. Moreover, it is found that the effect of FDI on CO₂ emission is positive regardless of whether there are positive or negative shocks to FDI in the long run. The short-run results are similar except for the positive shocks to FDIat lag one, which reduces environmental degradation in Pakistan. However, in the long run, population growth and positive (negative) shocks to technical innovation have a negative and significant impact on CO₂, whereas agriculture productivity is the main source of environmental degradation in Pakistan. The asymmetric tests show that FDI and agriculture productivity have strong asymmetric effects on the CO₂ emissions in the long run, whereas there is weak evidence of, in the short and long run, asymmetric effects of technical innovations in Pakistan. These results are statistically significant, valid, and stable as per most of the diagnostic tests conducted and reported in the study.

Keywords: Agriculture productivity; Environmental degradations; Foreign direct investment; Non-linear autoregressive model (NARDL); Technological innovation.