Patients with brain metastases (BMETS) need information about the prognosis and potential value of treatment options to make informed therapeutic decisions, but tools to predict survival in contemporary practice are scarce. We propose an Updated Recursive Partitioning Analysis (U-RPA) instrument to predict survival and benefit from brain-directed treatment (BDT) of contemporary patients. This was a retrospective analysis of patients with BMETS treated between 2017 and 2019. With survival as the primary endpoint, we calculated the U-RPA and generated estimates using Kaplan-Meier curves and hazard ratios. Of 862 eligible patients, 752 received BDT and 110 received best supportive care (BSC). Median overall survival with BDT and BSC was 9.3 and 1.3 months, respectively. Patients in RPA class 1, 2A, 2B and 3 who underwent BDT had median survival of 28.1, 14.7, 7.6 and 3.3 months, respectively. The median survival for patients in RPA 3 who received BDT (n = 147), WBRT (n = 79) and SRS (n = 54) was 3.3, 2.9 and 4.1 months, respectively. The U-RPA defines prognosis estimates, independent of tumor type and treatment modality, which can assist to make value-based care treatment decisions. The prognosis for patients in U-RPA class 2B and 3 remains poor, with consideration for early palliative care involvement in these cases.
Keywords: Karnofsky performance status; brain metastases; brain-directed treatment; prognosis; recursive partitioning analysis; stereotactic radiosurgery; whole brain radiation therapy.