How resilient was trade to COVID-19?

Maria Bas; Ana Fernandes; Caroline Paunov

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111080

How resilient was trade to COVID-19?

Econ Lett. 2023 Apr 3:111080. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111080. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Maria Bas¹, Ana Fernandes², Caroline Paunov³

Affiliations

¹ University of Paris 1, CES, France.
² World Bank, USA.
³ OECD, France.

Abstract

We provide stylized facts on the short-run resilience of exports to the COVID-19 pandemic across product characteristics. Relying on global monthly product-level exports to the United States, Japan, and 27 European Union countries from January 2018 to December 2021, we show that products with a higher reliance on China or few countries as input suppliers saw stronger declines in exports as a result of the COVID-19 shock while those with more automated production processes saw exports increase. Our analysis also shows that product characteristics played different roles mediating export responses at different stages of the 2020-2021 COVID-19 crisis. We document rapid reductions in vulnerabilities for exports of unskilled-intensive production. Reliance on diversified inputs from abroad progressively contributed to resilience following an initial negative role when trade was severely disrupted globally.

Keywords: COVID-19; Exports; High-frequency data; Resilience; Shock; Vulnerability.