Analysis and simulation of the driving mechanism and ecological effects of land cover change in the Weihe River basin, China

Wenjin Xu; Jinxi Song; Yongqing Long; Ruichen Mao; Bin Tang; Bingjie Li

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118320

Analysis and simulation of the driving mechanism and ecological effects of land cover change in the Weihe River basin, China

J Environ Manage. 2023 Oct 15:344:118320. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118320. Epub 2023 Jun 21.

Authors

Wenjin Xu¹, Jinxi Song², Yongqing Long³, Ruichen Mao¹, Bin Tang¹, Bingjie Li¹

Affiliations

¹ Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China; Yellow River Institute of Shanxi Province, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China; Institute of Qinling Mountains, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China.
² Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China; Yellow River Institute of Shanxi Province, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China; Institute of Qinling Mountains, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China. Electronic address: jinxisong@nwu.edu.cn.
³ Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China; Yellow River Institute of Shanxi Province, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China; Institute of Qinling Mountains, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China. Electronic address: sjzxlyq@nwu.edu.cn.

PMID: 37352629
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118320

Abstract

Land cover change (LCC) is both a consequence and a cause of global environmental change. This paper attempts to construct a framework to reveal the driving mechanism and ecological effects of different ecological factors under LCC and to explore the ecological characteristics of future LCC. A rule-mining framework based on a land expansion analysis strategy (LEAS) in the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to analyze the drivers of LCC. Neighborhood analysis and ecological effect index were used to investigate multiple ecological effects of LCC. Remote sensing-based ecological indices (RSEI) and the PLUS and stepwise regression model were introduced to explore and predict the integrated ecological effect of LCC. Focusing on the Weihe River basin, study's main drivers of LCC were precipitation, temperature, elevation, population, water table depth, proximity to governments and motorways, GDP, and topsoil organic carbon were the main drivers of LCC. Change directionality were similar for the effects of greenness and biomass formation but opposite for summertime and wintertime temperature. In addition, the conversion of land cover types to cropland had the most significant integrated ecological effect, followed by forest, grassland-shrubland, and other types. The RSEI is predicted to rise to 0.77 in 2030, and the areas where the ecological quality grade will improve and decrease are concentrated on the east and west sides of Ziwuling Mountain, respectively. The findings of this study have practical significance for land management and ecological protection.

Keywords: Driving factors; Integrated ecological effect; Land cover change; Multiple ecological effect; PLUS model.

MeSH terms

China
Conservation of Natural Resources
Ecosystem
Environmental Monitoring*
Forests
Remote Sensing Technology
Rivers*