Development and Validation of a Risk Calculator for Intensive Care Unit Admission After Total Hip Arthroplasty

Abstract

Background: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a risk stratification calculator to determine the risk of a patient requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission following primary and revision total hip arthroplasty (THA).

Methods: Using a database of 12,342 THA procedures, with 132 ICU admissions, from 2005 to 2017, we developed models of ICU admission risk based on previously identified preoperative factors including age, heart disease, neurologic disease, renal disease, unilateral versus bilateral surgery, preoperative hemoglobin, blood glucose, and smoking status. Prior to developing the calculator, a set of logistic regressions were analyzed to determine weight and scoring for each variable. Once developed, we validated the risk calculator using a second independent institution.

Results: A separate risk calculator was developed for primary and revision THA. The area under the curve (AUC) for primary THA was 0.808 (95% confidence interval 0.740 to 0.876) and revision THA was AUC 0.795 (confidence interval 0.740 to 0.850). As an example, the primary THA risk calculator had a Total Points scale of 220, with 50 points associated with a 0.1% chance of ICU admission and 205 points associated with a 95% chance of ICU admission. Validation with an external cohort demonstrated satisfactory AUCs, sensitivities, and specificities for both primary THA (AUC 0.794, sensitivity 0.750, and specificity 0.722) and revision THA (AUC 0.703, sensitivity 0.704, and specificity 0.671) CONCLUSION: The externally validated risk calculators developed in this study can accurately predict ICU admission following primary and revision THA based on a number of readily available preoperative factors.

Keywords: intensive care unit; revision total hip arthroplasty; risk calculator; risk factors; total hip arthroplasty.