Post-mortem CT radiomics for the prediction of time since death

Abstract

Objectives: Post-mortem interval (PMI) estimation has long been relying on sequential post-mortem changes on the body as a function of extrinsic, intrinsic, and environmental factors. Such factors are difficult to account for in complicated death scenes; thus, PMI estimation can be compromised. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the use of post-mortem CT (PMCT) radiomics for the differentiation between early and late PMI.

Methods: Consecutive whole-body PMCT examinations performed between 2016 and 2021 were retrospectively included (n = 120), excluding corpses without an accurately reported PMI (n = 23). Radiomics data were extracted from liver and pancreas tissue and randomly split into training and validation sets (70:30%). Following data preprocessing, significant features were selected (Boruta selection) and three XGBoost classifiers were built (liver, pancreas, combined) to differentiate between early (< 12 h) and late (> 12 h) PMI. Classifier performance was assessed with receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and areas under the curves (AUC), which were compared by bootstrapping.

Results: A total of 97 PMCTs were included, representing individuals (23 females and 74 males) with a mean age of 47.1 ± 23.38 years. The combined model achieved the highest AUC reaching 75% (95%CI 58.4-91.6%) (p = 0.03 compared to liver and p = 0.18 compared to pancreas). The liver-based and pancreas-based XGBoost models achieved AUCs of 53.6% (95%CI 34.8-72.3%) and 64.3% (95%CI 46.7-81.9%) respectively (p > 0.05 for the comparison between liver- and pancreas-based models).

Conclusion: The use of radiomics analysis on PMCT examinations differentiated early from late PMI, unveiling a novel image-based method with important repercussions in forensic casework.

Clinical relevance statement: This paper introduces the employment of radiomics in forensic diagnosis by presenting an effective automated alternative method of estimating post-mortem interval from targeted tissues, thus paving the way for improvement in speed and quality of forensic investigations.

Key points: • A combined liver-pancreas radiomics model differentiated early from late post-mortem intervals (using a 12-h threshold) with an area under the curve of 75% (95%CI 58.4-91.6%). • XGBoost models based on liver-only or pancreas-only radiomics demonstrated inferior performance to the combined model in predicting the post-mortem interval.

Keywords: Death; Machine learning; Medicine, forensic; Post-mortem examination; Tomography, spiral computed.