Objectives: This paper models cognitive aging, across mid and late life, and estimates birth cohort and sex differences in both initial levels and aging trajectories over time in a sample with multiple cohorts and a wide span of ages.
Methods: The data used in this study came from the first 9 waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, spanning 2002-2019. There were n = 76,014 observations (proportion male 45%). Dependent measures were verbal fluency, immediate recall, delayed recall, and orientation. Data were modeled using a Bayesian logistic growth curve model.
Results: Cognitive aging was substantial in 3 of the 4 variables examined. For verbal fluency and immediate recall, males and females could expect to lose about 30% of their initial ability between the ages of 52 and 89. Delayed recall showed a steeper decline, with males losing 40% and females losing 50% of their delayed recall ability between ages 52 and 89 (although females had a higher initial level of delayed recall). Orientation alone was not particularly affected by aging, with less than a 10% change for either males or females. Furthermore, we found cohort effects for initial ability level, with particularly steep increases for cohorts born between approximately 1930 and 1950.
Discussion: These cohort effects generally favored later-born cohorts. Implications and future directions are discussed.
Keywords: Cohort shifts; ELSA; Flynn effect.
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