Impacts of household vulnerability on hurricane logistics evacuation under COVID-19: The case of U.S. Hampton Roads

Rafael Diaz; Beatriz Acero; Joshua G Behr; Nicole S Hutton

doi:10.1016/j.tre.2023.103179

Impacts of household vulnerability on hurricane logistics evacuation under COVID-19: The case of U.S. Hampton Roads

Transp Res E Logist Transp Rev. 2023 Aug:176:103179. doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2023.103179. Epub 2023 Jun 1.

Authors

Rafael Diaz¹, Beatriz Acero², Joshua G Behr², Nicole S Hutton³

Affiliations

¹ School of Cybersecurity, Department of Engineering Management & Systems Engineering, Virginia Modeling and Simulation Center, Old Dominion University, United States.
² Virginia Modeling and Simulation Center, Old Dominion University, United States.
³ Department of Political Science and Geography, College of Arts & Letters, Old Dominion University, 7012 Batten Arts and Letters, Norfolk, VA 23529, United States.

Abstract

Historical data suggest that when a severe tropical storm or hurricane impacts a community, the vulnerable segment of the population suffers the most severe consequences. With an increased aging population, it is crucial to understand how vulnerability alters evacuation behavior. Emergent variables such as fear of COVID-19 require additional exploration. People afraid of COVID-19 exposure may refuse to evacuate, exposing themselves unnecessarily. Differentiation is critical to evacuation logistics since it is needed to determine what proportion would stay in a local shelter, public or other, rather than evacuating or staying in their home and guide the logistics resource allocation process. This research uses data from a web and phone survey conducted in the Hampton Roads area of U.S. Virginia, with 2,200 valid responses to analyze the influence of social and demographic vulnerability factors and risk perception on evacuation decisions. This research contributes to the existing literature by developing a multinomial order logit model based on vulnerability factors and intended evacuation decisions, including staying at home, looking for a shelter, or leaving the Hampton Roads area. Findings show that race and risk perception are the variables that influence the decision-making process the most. Fear of COVID-19 transmission is also associated with an increased likelihood of leaving homes during evacuation. The variations in findings from previous studies are discussed regarding their implications for logistics emergency managers.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Decision calculus; Evacuation behavior; Hurricane; Vulnerable population.