Epidemiological analysis and risk prediction of scrub typhus from 2006 to 2021 in Sichuan, China

Abstract

Background: In the past decade, the number of reported cases of scrub typhus (ST) has increased dramatically in Sichuan Province. We aimed to overview the epidemiological characteristics of ST, identify the variables contributing to the spatial distribution, and estimate the risk areas of ST occurrence.

Methods: Daily ST cases reported at the county level from 2006 to 2021 and datasets on environmental and socioeconomic variables were obtained. Joinpoint regression model was utilized to examine the incidence trends and to calculate the annual percentage change. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis was employed to explore the spatial temporal patterns. Then BRT model was employed to identify variables that make sense and predict the risk areas of ST occurrence.

Result: It has been reported that there were 6,338 ST cases in Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2021, and the incidence rates continued to rise. Most cases were distributed between June and October each year, peaking in August. During the study period, the cases showed spatial clustering at the county level, mainly in the Panxi area, and then slowly spread to the northwest and northeast. Shrubs, precipitation, farmland and maximum temperature were the primary variables that affected the spatial distribution of this disease. It was estimated that the areas including Liangshan, Panzhihua, Bazhong, and Guangyuan were most at risk of transmission. and there were approximately 32.315 million people living in the areas with potential risk of infection throughout Sichuan.

Conclusion: Many counties in Sichuan Province were estimated to be susceptible to ST. Our found in this data-driven study could be used to guide the implementation of targeted prevention and control measures in high-risk areas.

Keywords: BRT model; contributing variables; epidemiological feature; risk areas; scrub typhus (tsutsugamushi disease).