Intra-host mutation rate of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection during the initial pandemic wave

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 mutation is minimized through a proofreading function encoded by NSP-14. Most estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 mutation rate are derived from population based sequence data. Our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 evolution might be enhanced through analysis of intra-host viral mutation rates in specific populations. Viral genome analysis was performed between paired samples and mutations quantified at allele frequencies (AF) ≥ 0.25, ≥ 0.5 and ≥ 0.75. Mutation rate was determined employing F81 and JC69 evolution models and compared between isolates with (ΔNSP-14) and without (wtNSP-14) non-synonymous mutations in NSP-14 and by patient comorbidity. Forty paired samples with median interval of 13 days [IQR 8.5-20] were analyzed. The estimated mutation rate by F81 modeling was 93.6 (95%CI 90.8-96.4], 40.7 (95%CI 38.9-42.6) and 34.7 (95%CI 33.0-36.4) substitutions/genome/year at AF ≥ 0.25, ≥ 0.5, ≥ 0.75 respectively. Mutation rate in ΔNSP-14 were significantly elevated at AF ≥ 0.25 vs wtNSP-14. Patients with immune comorbidities had higher mutation rate at all allele frequencies. Intra-host SARS-CoV-2 mutation rates are substantially higher than those reported through population analysis. Virus strains with altered NSP-14 have accelerated mutation rate at low AF. Immunosuppressed patients have elevated mutation rate at all AF. Understanding intra-host virus evolution will aid in current and future pandemic modeling.

Keywords: Allele frequency; COVID-19; Mutation rate; NSP-14; SARS-CoV-2; SNV.