An AQI decomposition ensemble model based on SSA-LSTM using improved AMSSA-VMD decomposition reconstruction technique

Abstract

Air quality index (AQI) is a key index for monitoring air pollution and can be used as guide for ensuring good public health. Accurate AQI prediction allows timely control and management of air pollution. In this study, a new integrated learning model was constructed to predict AQI. A smart reverse learning approach based on AMSSA was utilized to increase the diversity of populations, and an improved AMSSA (IAMSSA) was established. The optimum parameters with penalty factor α and mode number K of VMD were obtained using IAMSSA. The IAMSSA-VMD was used to decompose nonlinear and non-stationary AQI information series into several regular and smooth sub-sequences. The Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA) was used to determine the optimum LSTM parameters. The results showed that: (1) IAMSSA exhibits faster convergence and higher accuracy and stability using simulation experiments compared with seven conventional optimization algorithms in 12 test functions. (2) IAMSSA-VMD was used to decompose the original air quality data results in multiple uncoupled intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual (RES). An SSA-LSTM model was built for each IMF and one RES component, which effectively extracted the predicted values. (3) LSTM, SSA-LSTM, VMD-LSTM, VMD-SSA-LSTM, AMSSA-VMD-SSA-LSTM, and IAMSSA-VMD-SSA-LSTM models were used for prediction of AQI based on data from three cities (Chengdu, Guangzhou, and Shenyang). IAMSSA-VMD-SSA-LSTM exhibited the optimal prediction performance with MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R² of 3.692, 4.909, 6.241, and 0.981, respectively. (4) Generalization outcomes revealed that the IAMSSA-VMD-SSA-LSTM model had optimal generalization ability. In summary, the decomposition ensemble model proposed in this study has higher prediction accuracy, improved fitting effect and generalization ability compared with other models. These properties indicate the superiority of the decomposition ensemble model and provides a theoretical and technical basis for prediction of air pollution and ecosystem restoration.

Keywords: AQI prediction; Improved AMSSA; SSA-LSTM; VMD optimization.