Noninvasive imaging evaluation of peritoneal recurrence and chemotherapy benefit in gastric cancer after gastrectomy: a multicenter study

Abstract

Background: Peritoneal recurrence (PR) is the predominant pattern of relapse after curative-intent surgery in gastric cancer (GC) and indicates a dismal prognosis. Accurate prediction of PR is crucial for patient management and treatment. The authors aimed to develop a noninvasive imaging biomarker from computed tomography (CT) for PR evaluation, and investigate its associations with prognosis and chemotherapy benefit.

Methods: In this multicenter study including five independent cohorts of 2005 GC patients, the authors extracted 584 quantitative features from the intratumoral and peritumoral regions on contrast-enhanced CT images. The artificial intelligence algorithms were used to select significant PR-related features, and then integrated into a radiomic imaging signature. And improvements of diagnostic accuracy for PR by clinicians with the signature assistance were quantified. Using Shapley values, the authors determined the most relevant features and provided explanations to prediction. The authors further evaluated its predictive performance in prognosis and chemotherapy response.

Results: The developed radiomics signature had a consistently high accuracy in predicting PR in the training cohort (area under the curve: 0.732) and internal and Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center validation cohorts (0.721 and 0.728). The radiomics signature was the most important feature in Shapley interpretation. The diagnostic accuracy of PR with the radiomics signature assistance was improved by 10.13-18.86% for clinicians ( P <0.001). Furthermore, it was also applicable in the survival prediction. In multivariable analysis, the radiomics signature remained an independent predictor for PR and prognosis ( P <0.001 for all). Importantly, patients with predicting high risk of PR from radiomics signature could gain survival benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. By contrast, chemotherapy had no impact on survival for patients with a predicted low risk of PR.

Conclusion: The noninvasive and explainable model developed from preoperative CT images could accurately predict PR and chemotherapy benefit in patients with GC, which will allow the optimization of individual decision-making.