Assessing the effectiveness of protected areas for panda conservation under future climate and land use change scenarios

Junfeng Tang; Ronald R Swaisgood; Megan A Owen; Xuzhe Zhao; Wei Wei; Mingsheng Hong; Hong Zhou; Zejun Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118319

Assessing the effectiveness of protected areas for panda conservation under future climate and land use change scenarios

J Environ Manage. 2023 Sep 15:342:118319. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118319. Epub 2023 Jun 6.

Authors

Junfeng Tang¹, Ronald R Swaisgood², Megan A Owen³, Xuzhe Zhao⁴, Wei Wei⁵, Mingsheng Hong⁶, Hong Zhou⁷, Zejun Zhang⁸

Affiliations

¹ Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education), China West Normal University, Nanchong, China; Institute of Ecology, China West Normal University, Nanchong, China; Liziping Giant Panda's Ecology and Conservation Observation and Research Station of Sichuan Province, China. Electronic address: junfeng_tang@126.com.
² Conservation Science and Wildlife Health, San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance, Escondido, CA, USA. Electronic address: RSwaisgood@sdzwa.org.
³ Conservation Science and Wildlife Health, San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance, Escondido, CA, USA. Electronic address: MOwen@sdzwa.org.
⁴ Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education), China West Normal University, Nanchong, China; Institute of Ecology, China West Normal University, Nanchong, China; Liziping Giant Panda's Ecology and Conservation Observation and Research Station of Sichuan Province, China. Electronic address: xuzhe_zhao@126.com.
⁵ Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education), China West Normal University, Nanchong, China; Liziping Giant Panda's Ecology and Conservation Observation and Research Station of Sichuan Province, China. Electronic address: weidamon@163.com.
⁶ Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education), China West Normal University, Nanchong, China; Liziping Giant Panda's Ecology and Conservation Observation and Research Station of Sichuan Province, China. Electronic address: mingshenghong@cqu.edu.cn.
⁷ Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education), China West Normal University, Nanchong, China; Liziping Giant Panda's Ecology and Conservation Observation and Research Station of Sichuan Province, China. Electronic address: zhouhong1026@163.com.
⁸ Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education), China West Normal University, Nanchong, China; Liziping Giant Panda's Ecology and Conservation Observation and Research Station of Sichuan Province, China. Electronic address: zzj@cwnu.edu.cn.

PMID: 37290306
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118319

Abstract

While the relatively stable land use and land cover (LULC) patterns is an important feature of protected areas (PAs), the influence of this feature on future species distribution and the effectiveness of the PAs has rarely been explored. Here, we assessed the role of land use patterns within PAs on the projected range of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) by comparing projections inside and outside of PAs for four model configurations: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and dynamic land use covariates, (3) climate and static land use covariates and (4) climate and hybrid dynamic-static land use covariates. Our objectives were twofold: to understand the role of protected status on projected panda habitat suitability and evaluate the relative efficacy of different climate modeling approaches. The climate and land use change scenarios used in the models include two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) scenarios: SSP126 [an optimistic scenario] and SSP585 [a pessimistic scenario]. We found that models including land-use covariates performed significantly better than climate-only models and that these projected more suitable habitat than climate-only models. Static land-use models projected more suitable habitat than both the dynamic and hybrid models under SSP126, while these models did not differ under SSP585. China's panda reserve system was projected to effectively maintain suitable habitat inside PAs. Panda dispersal ability also significantly impacted outcomes, with most models assuming unlimited dispersal forecasting range expansion and models assuming zero dispersal consistently forecasting range contraction. Our findings highlight that policies targeting improved land-use practices should be an effective means for offsetting some of the negative effects of climate change on pandas. As the effectiveness of PAs is projected to be maintained, we recommend the judicious management and expansion of the PA system to ensure the resilience of panda populations into the future.

Keywords: Climate change; Future distributions; Giant panda; Land use change; Protected areas; SDMs.

MeSH terms

Animals
Climate Change
Conservation of Natural Resources*
Ecosystem
Forecasting
Ursidae*