Short and long-term temperature variations drive recruitment variability in marine and estuarine juvenile fishes

Abstract

Understanding the long-term effects of climatic factors on key species' recruitment is crucial to species management and conservation. Here, we analysed the recruitment variability of key species (Dicentrarchus labrax, Platichthys flesus, Solea solea, Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus) in an estuary between 2003 and 2019, and related it with the prevailing local and large-scale environmental factors. Using a dynamic factor analysis (DFA), juvenile abundance data were grouped into three common trends linked to different habitat uses and life cycle characteristics, with significant effect of temperature-related variables on fish recruitment: Sea surface temperature and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In 2010, a regime shift in the North Atlantic coincided with a shift in the common trends, particularly a decline in P. flesus and S. solea trend. This work highlights the thermophilic character of fish recruitment and the necessity to investigate key biological processes in the context of species-specific responses to climate change.

Keywords: Climate change; Connectivity; Dynamic factor analysis; Nursery areas; Regime shifts; Time series.