Development, Deployment, and Implementation of a Machine Learning Surgical Case Length Prediction Model and Prospective Evaluation

Abstract

Objective: To implement a machine learning model using only the restricted data available at case creation time to predict surgical case length for multiple services at different locations.

Background: The operating room is one of the most expensive resources in a health system, estimated to cost $22 to $133 per minute and generate about 40% of hospital revenue. Accurate prediction of surgical case length is necessary for efficient scheduling and cost-effective utilization of the operating room and other resources.

Methods: We introduced a similarity cascade to capture the complexity of cases and surgeon influence on the case length and incorporated that into a gradient-boosting machine learning model. The model loss function was customized to improve the balance between over- and under-prediction of the case length. A production pipeline was created to seamlessly deploy and implement the model across our institution.

Results: The prospective analysis showed that the model output was gradually adopted by the schedulers and outperformed the scheduler-predicted case length from August to December 2022. In 33,815 surgical cases across outpatient and inpatient platforms, the operational implementation predicted 11.2% fewer underpredicted cases and 5.9% more cases within 20% of the actual case length compared with the schedulers and only overpredicted 5.3% more. The model assisted schedulers to predict 3.4% more cases within 20% of the actual case length and 4.3% fewer underpredicted cases.

Conclusions: We created a unique framework that is being leveraged every day to predict surgical case length more accurately at case posting time and could be potentially utilized to deploy future machine learning models.