Anthropogenic mercury (Hg) emission inventories are crucial for the effectiveness evaluation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. In this study, we developed an integrated Dynamic Inventory for Mercury Emission (DIME) model and improved the accuracy of emission estimates for primary sources in China. Long-term historical speciated Hg emission inventories for China were established. The total Hg emissions increased from 217.0 t in 1980 to 357.8 t in 2020 with a peak value of 506.6 t in 2010. Three stages with distinct leading drivers were identified. At Stage 1 (1980-1997), Hg emissions doubled with the rapid growth of economy; the driver was offset by the increase of dust and SO2 control measures at Stage 2 (1997-2010) except for cement production; and co-benefits from strict control measures induced the decoupling of Hg emissions from the economy at Stage 3 (2010-2020). The ultralow emission (ULE) retrofits in key industries had pronounced Hg removal efficiencies. Large emission reduction potential still exists in the cement industry. The improved emission estimation methods for key sectors, the consistency in methodology for historical Hg emission inventories, and the more accurate spatial distribution of speciated Hg emissions in this study provide a practical toolkit for the effectiveness evaluation of the Minamata Convention.
Keywords: China; Minamata Convention; effectiveness evaluation; mercury emission inventory; probabilistic model..