On the uncertainty in estimates of the carbon balance recovery time after forest clear-cutting

Abstract

An essential metric for describing carbon dynamics in managed forest landscapes is the recovery time of the carbon balance after clear-cutting. Here, we demonstrate how the age-dependent mathematical trajectory is affected by both the selected model and data availability, leading to considerable uncertainty in the modelling of the net ecosystem production (NEP) over stand age. We further show that the initial carbon loss estimates associated with the timing of the source-sink transition (SST) are significant, but may have a limited effect on the total carbon sequestration at the end of the standard (RP, 120 years) or optimal (OCS) rotation periods.

Keywords: boreal forest; carbon sequestration; climate change mitigation; rotation-forestry; source-sink trajectory.