Identification and prediction of climate factors based on factor analysis and a grey prediction model in China

Abstract

Identifying and predicting the impacts of climate change are crucial for various purposes, such as maintaining biodiversity, agricultural production, ecological security, and environmental conservation in different regions. In this paper, we used the surface pressure (SP), surface temperature (ST), 2-m air temperature (AT), 2-m dewpoint temperature (DT), 10-m wind speed (WS), precipitation (PRE), relative humidity (RH), actual evapotranspiration (ET_a), potential evapotranspiration (ET_P), total solar radiation (TRs), net solar radiation (NRs), UV intensity (UVI), sunshine duration (SD), convective available potential energy (CAPE) as factors in our climate modeling. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the climate factors were analyzed and identified based on historical data for China from 1950 to 2020 using factor analysis and a grey model (GM (1,1)), and their future change characteristics were predicted. The results show that there is a strong correlation between climate factors. ST, AT, DT, PRE, RH, and ET_a are the main factors that have the potential to cause heavy rain, thunderstorms, and other severe weather. Meanwhile, PRE, RH, TR_s, NR_s, UVI, and SD are among the major factors linked to climate change. Specifically, SP, ST, AT, and WS are among the minor factors in most areas. The top ten provinces in terms of combined factor scores are Heilongjiang, Neimenggu, Qinghai, Beijing, Shandong, Xizang, Shanxi, Tianjin, Guangdong, and Henan. The trend of climate factors in China is expected to remain relatively stable over the next 30 years, with a noteworthy decrease observed in CAPE compared to the past 71 years. Our findings can help to better mitigate the risks associated with climate change and enhance resilience; they also provide a scientific basis for environmental, ecological, and agricultural systems to cope with climate change.

Keywords: Climate change prediction; Climate factor identification; Factor analysis; Grey systems model.