Impact of introducing net-zero carbon strategies on tropospheric ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in Japanese region in 2050

Hiroo Hata; Kazuya Inoue; Hiroshi Yoshikado; Yutaka Genchi; Kiyotaka Tsunemi

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164442

Impact of introducing net-zero carbon strategies on tropospheric ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations in Japanese region in 2050

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Sep 15:891:164442. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164442. Epub 2023 May 26.

Authors

Hiroo Hata¹, Kazuya Inoue², Hiroshi Yoshikado², Yutaka Genchi², Kiyotaka Tsunemi²

Affiliations

¹ Research Institute of Science for Safety and Sustainability, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), 16-1 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan. Electronic address: hata-hiroo@aist.go.jp.
² Research Institute of Science for Safety and Sustainability, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), 16-1 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan.

PMID: 37245799
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164442

Abstract

In this study, we estimated the future emission inventory of primary air pollutants in Japan in 2050 after introducing low-carbon technology based on the results of the socio-economic model provided by the Japanese government. The results suggested that introducing net-zero carbon technology would contribute to a 50-60 % decrease in primary NO_x, SO₂, and CO emissions and a ~30 % decrease in primary emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and PM_2.5. The estimated emission inventory and future meteorological conditions in 2050 were applied as inputs to a chemical transport model. A scenario involving the application of future reduction strategies with relatively moderate global warming (RCP4.5) was evaluated. The results showed that the concentration of tropospheric ozone (O₃) was highly reduced compared with that in 2015 after applying net-zero carbon reduction strategies. On the other hand, the fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentration under the 2050 scenario was expected to be equal or higher because of the growth in secondary aerosol formation caused by the increase in short-wave radiation. Finally, the premature mortality change from 2015 to 2050 was analyzed, and the change in air quality contributed by net-zero carbon technology will contribute to a ~4000 decrease in premature deaths in Japan.

Keywords: Chemical transport model; Emission inventory; Emission reduction strategy; Fine particulate matter; Tropospheric ozone.