As non-unions are still common, a predictive assessment of healing complications could enable immediate intervention before negative impacts for the patient occur. The aim of this pilot study was to predict consolidation with the help of a numerical simulation model. A total of 32 simulations of patients with closed diaphyseal femoral shaft fractures treated by intramedullary nailing (PFNA long, FRN, LFN, and DePuy Synthes) were performed by creating 3D volume models based on biplanar postoperative radiographs. An established fracture healing model, which describes the changes in tissue distribution at the fracture site, was used to predict the individual healing process based on the surgical treatment performed and full weight bearing. The assumed consolidation as well as the bridging dates were retrospectively correlated with the clinical and radiological healing processes. The simulation correctly predicted 23 uncomplicated healing fractures. Three patients showed healing potential according to the simulation, but clinically turned out to be non-unions. Four out of six non-unions were correctly detected as non-unions by the simulation, and two simulations were wrongfully diagnosed as non-unions. Further adjustments of the simulation algorithm for human fracture healing and a larger cohort are necessary. However, these first results show a promising approach towards an individualized prognosis of fracture healing based on biomechanical factors.
Keywords: computer-based simulation; delayed union; diaphyseal femur fracture; fracture healing simulation; healing prediction; mechanobiological healing model; non-union; numerical simulation model.