Introduction: According with "Numbers of cancer in Italy. 2021" mortality is decreasing for both the genders (-10% for men, -8% for women) in Italy. However, this trend is not uniform and seems stable in the Southern regions. Analyses of oncological care in Campania Region highlighted some structural critical issues and delays, which did not guarantee an efficient and effective use of the available economic resources. So, the Campania region established in September 2016 the Campania oncological network (Roc) addressed to prevention, diagnosis, treatment and rehabilitation of tumours through the establishment of multidisciplinary oncological groups (Gom). In February 2020, the ValPeRoc project was launched with the aim of periodically and progressively evaluating the Roc's performance both for the clinical services and for the economic aspects.
Methods: In five Goms (colon, ovary, lung, prostate, bladder) active in some Roc hospitals, the pre-Gom time elapsing between the date of diagnosis and the date of the first Gom meeting and the Gom time elapsing between the date of the first Gom meeting and the date of the treatment decision were measured. Gom times longer than 28 days were defined as high. The risk of high Gom time was analyzed with a Bart-type machine learning algorithm, considering the set of regressors (features) available to classify patients.
Results: The results on the test set (54 patients) report an accuracy of 0.68. The classification technique reported a good fit for colon Gom (93%) and an over-classification for lung Gom. The study of the marginal effects showed a higher risk for those who had a previous therapeutic act and for lung Gom.
Conclusions: Within the Goms took in consideration the proposed statistical technique showed that, depending on each Gom, correctly classified about 70% of individuals on risk of delaying permanence within the Roc. The ValPeRoc project evaluates Roc activity for the first time through a replicable analysis of patient pathway times from diagnosis to the act of treatment. Specifically, the times analyzed measure the quality of the regional health care system.