The pollution control effect of the atmospheric environmental policy in autumn and winter: Evidence from the daily data of Chinese cities

Abstract

The pollution control effect of seasonal environmental regulation policies in developing countries still lacks empirical evidence. In 2017, China implemented its first Atmospheric Environmental Policy in Autumn and Winter (AEPAW) to coordinate efforts among cities in reducing air pollutant emissions. Taking the daily panel data of 174 cities in northern China from July 2017 to July 2020 as samples, this paper empirically examines the pollution control effect of the AEPAW using a difference-in-differences model, a difference-in-difference-in-differences model, and a regression discontinuity design. The results show that the AEPAW significantly improves air quality in autumn and winter, with the air quality index decreasing by 5.6% on average by reducing PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, and O₃ emissions. However, the AEPAW only creates a short-term "policy-induced blue sky", and there exists a phenomenon of "retaliatory pollution" after the AEPAW ends. Besides, the pollution control effect of the AEPAW is moderated by the heterogeneity of the national "Two Sessions" and the Central Environmental Protection Inspection. The implementation of the AEPAW also has a significant spillover effect on air pollution control in surrounding areas. The net benefit from the AEPAW is estimated to be approximately US$ 670 million per year. These findings not only have practical significance for strengthening the comprehensive control of air pollution in China, but also give some important references for other developing countries.

Keywords: Atmospheric environmental policy; China; Policy-induced blue sky; Pollution control effect; Quasi-experimental design; Retaliatory pollution.