A spatial indicator of environmental and climatic vulnerability in Rome

Abstract

Background: Urban areas are disproportionately affected by multiple pressures from overbuilding, traffic, air pollution, and heat waves that often interact and are interconnected in producing health effects. A new synthetic tool to summarize environmental and climatic vulnerability has been introduced for the city of Rome, Italy, to provide the basis for environmental and health policies.

Methods: From a literature overview and based on the availability of data, several macro-dimensions were identified on 1,461 grid cells with a width of 1 km² in Rome: land use, roads and traffic-related exposure, green space data, soil sealing, air pollution (PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, C₆H₆, SO₂), urban heat island intensity. The Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis (GWPCA) method was performed to produce a composite spatial indicator to describe and interpret each spatial feature by integrating all environmental dimensions. The method of natural breaks was used to define the risk classes. A bivariate map of environmental and social vulnerability was described.

Results: The first three components explained most of the variation in the data structure with an average of 78.2% of the total percentage of variance (PTV) explained by the GWPCA, with air pollution and soil sealing contributing most in the first component; green space in the second component; road and traffic density and SO₂ in the third component. 56% of the population lives in areas with high or very high levels of environmental and climatic vulnerability, showing a periphery-centre trend, inverse to the deprivation index.

Conclusions: A new environmental and climatic vulnerability indicator for the city of Rome was able to identify the areas and population at risk in the city, and can be integrated with other vulnerability dimensions, such as social deprivation, providing the basis for risk stratification of the population and for the design of policies to address environmental, climatic and social injustice.

Keywords: Climatic vulnerability; Composite indicator; Environmental vulnerability; Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis; Risk stratification; Social vulnerability.