The necessity for popularizing varicella-zoster virus vaccine programs worldwide: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

Abstract

Background: Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) causes varicella and herpes zoster (VHZ), which is endemic worldwide. Although infection with VZV represents a considerable health threat, the global, regional and national burden of VZV infection, especially the probable relationship between VZV vaccines and the epidemiology of VZV infection, is poorly known. We sought to estimate the global spatial patterns and temporal trends of VHZ burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

Methods: Numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) of VHZ incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019. Spatiotemporal trends in ASR were evaluated by estimated annual percentage change (EAPC).

Results: Worldwide, in 2019, there were approximately 84.0 million incidence and 0.9 million DALYs due to VHZ. The corresponding ASIR (age-standardized incidence rate) and ASDR (age-standardized DALY rate) drastically decreased in children (aged <20 years old), while the ASIR and ASDR of VHZ significantly increased in middle- and old-aged adults (aged >50 years old), with highest ASIR and ASDR in the High-income Asia Pacific and Western Sub-Saharan Africa, respectively. From 1990-2019, the corresponding EAPC in ASIR were 0.03 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.02-0.04). Whereas the global EAPC in ASDR decreased in all regions (-1.59, 95% UI: -1.64 to -1.55), expect for Australasia (0.46, [0.05, 0.88]). Notably, in 2019, age-specific rates of VHZ DALYs presented a rapid growth trend after 70 years old.

Conclusion: The spatiotemporal trends of VHZ were heterogeneous across countries from 1990 to 2019. The spatiotemporal trend in ASIR is highest in the High sociodemographic index (SDI) region, however the EAPC in ASDR is lowest, in part probably due to VHZ vaccination. Therefore, reducing morbidity and burden strategies such as vaccines programs for the prevention of VHZ should be promoted in those regions with high growth incidence and/or burden, especially for the population after 70 years old.

Keywords: Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); Global burden of disease; Herpes zoster; Incidence; Varicella; Varicella-zoster virus.