Background and aim: Early diagnosis of splanchnic vein thrombosis (SVT) after severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) remains difficult because of its insidious onset. Common serum markers for thrombosis such as D-dimer (D-D) have lost their diagnostic value due to their elevation in non-thrombotic patients with SAP. The aim of this study is to predict SVT after SAP using common serum indicators of thrombosis by establishing a new cut-off value.
Methods: 177 SAP patients were included in a retrospective cohort study from September 2019 to September 2021. Patient demographics, dynamic changes of coagulation and fibrinolysis indicators were collected. Univariate analyses and binary logistic regression analyses were applied to assess potential risk factors for the development of SVT in SAP patients. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated to assess the predictive value of independent risk factors. Moreover, clinical complications and outcomes were compared between two groups.
Results: Among 177 SAP patients, 32 (18.1%) developed SVT. The most common cause of SAP was biliary (49.8%), followed by hypertriglyceridemia (21.5%). Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that D-D (OR, 1.135; 95%CI, 1.043-1.236; p = 0.003) and fibrinogen degradation product (FDP) (OR, 1.037; 95%CI, 1.015-1.060; p = 0.001) were independent risk factors for SVT development in patients with SAP. The area under ROC curve for D-D was 0.891 (p = 0.003, sensitivity= 95.3%, specificity = 74.1%) at a cut-off value of 6.475, and the area under ROC curve for FDP was 0.858 (p = 0.001, sensitivity = 89.4%, specificity = 72.4%) at a cut-off value of 23.155.
Conclusion: D-D and FDP are significant independent risk factors with high predictive value for SVT in patients with SAP.
Keywords: D-dimer; Severe acute pancreatitis; fibrinogen degradation product; predictive value; splanchnic vein thrombosis.