Climatic and topographic controls on glacial changes (1973-2020) in Shigar Basin, Central Karakoram, Northern Pakistan

Abstract

The Hindukush, Karakorum, and Himalaya (HKH) mountains are often referred to as the "Third Pole" because of high snow, being a major freshwater resource and early indicator of climate change. Therefore, research on the dynamics of glacier changes and their relationship with climate and topographic variability is essential for sustainable water resource management and adaptation strategies in Pakistan. In this contribution, we delineated 187 glaciers and examined these glacier changes in the Shigar Basin from 1973 to 2020 using Corona, Landsat Operational Land Imager/Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus/Thematic Mapper/Multispectral Scanner System (OLI/ETM/TM/MSS), Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model (SRTM DEM) imageries. The total glacier area decreased from 2796.31 ± 132 km² in 1973 to 2756.27 ± 63 km² in 2020 at an average rate of - 0.83 ± 0.03 km²yr^-1. Specifically, during the period of 1990-2000, these glaciers shrank most heavily at an average rate of - 2.372 ± 0.08 km²yr^-1. In contrast, an increased rate of 0.57 ± 0.02 km²yr^-1 in total glacier area was observed during the recent decade (2010-2020). Moreover, the glaciers with gentle slopes retreated less heavily than the steep ones. There was reduction in glacier coverage and length for all slope classes, and a small reduction was observed with gentle slopes, while higher losses were observed on steep slope gradients. The transition of glaciers in the Shigar Basin may be attributed by the direct influence of glacier size and topographical characteristics. By comparing with climate records, our findings suggest that the overall reduction in glacier area from 1973 to 2020 was associated with declining precipitation (- 0.78 mmm/year) and rising temperature (0.045 °C/year) trends in the region, and glacier advances in recent decade (2010-2020) were likely to be driven by increased winter and autumn precipitation.

Keywords: Central Karakorum; Climate change; GIS; Glacial changes; Remote sensing; Shigar Basin.