Monte Carlo-based probabilistic risk assessment for cement workers exposed to heavy metals in cement dust

Abstract

This study assessed the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risks of cement plant workers exposed to chromium (Cr), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), and lead (Pb) in cement dust using a probabilistic approach. Air samples were collected according to NIOSH 7900 and OSHA ID-121 methods and analyzed by an graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometer. The EPA inhalation risk assessment model and Monte Carlo simulation were utilized to assess the health risks. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the influencing parameters on health risk. The average concentrations of As and Pb exceeded the occupational exposure limit (OEL), reaching a maximum of 3.4 and 1.7 times the OEL, respectively, in the cement mill. Individual metals' cancer risk exceeded the 1E-4 threshold in ascending order of Cd < As < Cr. The mean cancer risk of Cr ranged from 835E-4 (in raw mill) to 2870E-4 (in pre-heater and kiln). Except for Cd, the non-cancer risk of metals exceeded the standard (hazard index, HQ = 1) in the ascending order of Pb < As < Cr. The mean HQ of Cr ranged from 162.13 (in raw mill) to 558.73 (in pre-heater and kiln). After adjusting for control factors, the cancer and non-cancer risks remained over the respective recommended levels. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the concentration of Cr was the most influential parameter on both carcinogenic (78.5%) and non-carcinogenic (88.06%) risks. To protect the health of cement factory employees, it is recommended to minimize cement dust emissions, implement job rotation, and use raw materials with low levels of heavy metals.

Keywords: Cancer risk; Cement industry; Heavy metals; Monte Carlo simulation; Non-cancer risk; Probabilistic risk assessment.