Accumulating evidence supports the potential protective effects of vitamin D against chronic diseases such as Alzheimer's disease, autoimmune diseases, cancers, cardiovascular disease (ischaemic heart disease and stroke), type 2 diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, stroke, and infectious diseases such as acute respiratory tract diseases, COVID-19, influenza, and pneumonia, as well as adverse pregnancy outcomes. The respective evidence is based on ecological and observational studies, randomized controlled trials, mechanistic studies, and Mendelian randomization studies. However, randomized controlled trials on vitamin D supplementation have largely failed to show benefits, probably due to poor design and analysis. In this work, we aim to use the best available evidence on the potential beneficial effects of vitamin D to estimate the expected reduction in incidence and mortality rates of vitamin D-related diseases in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates if minimum serum 25(OH)D concentrations were to be raised to 30 ng/mL. Estimated reductions by 25% for myocardial infarction incidence, 35% for stroke incidence, 20 to 35% for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 35% for cancer mortality rates depicted a promising potential for raising serum 25(OH)D. Methods to increase serum 25(OH)D concentrations at the population level could include food fortification with vitamin D3, vitamin D supplementation, improved dietary vitamin D intake, and sensible sun exposure.
Keywords: Middle East; breast cancer; calcitriol; case-control study; dementia; hill’s criteria; metabolic syndrome; recommendations; season; solar UVB.